Renewable Energy Modeling to Support Clean Energy Buyers with GHG Emissions

A collaboration between The U.S.

Many companies rely on approximate extimates of their entire GHG emissions, and the project aims to enhance NREL's existing Cambium data sets-which contain modeled hourly emission, cost, and operational data for the electricity sector in the United States-by adding emissions data from major corporate projects, including data centers and new construction projects. The improved emissions modeling will cover a variety of commercial and industrial applications, and support internal company GHG projections.

Many companies rely on approximate extimates of their entire GHG emissions, and the project aims to enhance NREL’s existing Cambium data sets—which contain modeled hourly emission, cost, and operational data for the electricity sector in the United States—by adding emissions data from major corporate projects, including data centers and new construction projects.

This framework should give clean energy buyers more accurate data to maximize the emissions reduction impact of their investments.

"Our purpose is to inject more and better information into decision-making," explains Pieter Gagnon, principal investigator and the lead developer of Cambium.

“Our purpose is to inject more and better information into decision-making,” explains Pieter Gagnon, principal investigator and the lead developer of Cambium.

“Adding electrical load has the potential to induce the construction of more non-emitting generators, such as wind and solar.

“Any metric that is intended to comprehensively measure emissions would need to capture this phenomenon.”

A 'Long-View' of Emissions

In a 2022 publication, Gagnon and Wesley Cole of NREL demonstrated that the long-run marginal emission rate, which captures both operational and structural impacts on emissions, outperforms current metrics in accurately estimating GHG emission impacts. Gagnon and his team have now integrated the metric at a state level into Cambium, and will apply it to several sample cases that are being developed to support the new initiative - including data centers, fulfillment centers and grocery stores. How energy data applies to data centers is considered to be an expecially important consideration as new investments are considered medium- to long- term.

By way of example, a company which builds a new facility in a state like Iowa that benefits from natural wind resources is likely to produce more favourable longterm GHG emissions as well as a new stream of genuinely clean energy supply.

The NREL tool, Scenario Viewer, already allows Cambium data sets to be vizualised, and will eventually incorporate new data produced by the collaboration; in turn allowing users to select a data scenario, analyze different graphs, download source data, and use the information in decisions about when - and how - to procure clean energy.

Gagnon and his team have now integrated the metric at a state level into Cambium, and will apply it to several sample cases that are being developed to support the new initiative - including data centers, fulfillment centers and grocery stores.

How energy data applies to data centers is considered to be an expecially important consideration as new investments are considered medium- to long- term.

“We want to know that we’re making decisions that maximize avoided emissions and minimize induced emissions,” says Arno van den Haak, principal clean energy analyst at Amazon. “With Pieter’s help, we’ll look at a range of interventions and provide a handbook that can help others determine their overall effect on emissions.”

Emissions accounting underpins much of the clean energy economy. By way of example, a solar power plant in California is incapable of sending renewable power to a data center in North Carolina but can send renewable energy certificates - intangible units of clean electricity that are procured by over 400,000 companies, utilities providers, and other organizations to 'buy-down' their environmental impact. The Greenhouse Gas Protocol, the GHG accounting and management standard used by companies across the globe, is already updating its guidance on the basis of a wealth of new research that has been conducted during the last decade.

NREL says new emissions metrics have also created a wider conversation about the future of how emissions are tracked, how renewable energy is valued, and how to modernize the multibillion-dollar marketplace for renewable energy credits.

Understanding how corporate actions can influence emissions is a necessary part of the conversation around emissions reporting

The above scenarios show expected emissions for a scenario in 2030 considering all technologies and U.S. regions.

Emissions using the short-run marginal estimation rate are shown on the left, and the long-run marginal estimation rate on the right predicts far less emissions (in kilograms/megawatt-hour). Screenshot from (Image credit: NREL).

The Future of Emissions Accounting

Emissions accounting underpins much of the clean energy economy.

By way of example, a solar power plant in California is incapable of sending renewable power to a data center in North Carolina but can send renewable energy certificates - intangible units of clean electricity that are procured by over 400,000 companies, utilities providers, and other organizations to 'buy-down' their environmental impact.

The Greenhouse Gas Protocol, the GHG accounting and management standard used by companies across the globe, is already updating its guidance on the basis of a wealth of new research that has been conducted during the last decade.

“Carbon emissions from electricity generation vary based on time and location, which makes measuring them complicated.

By looking at the right data and taking advantage of advances in cloud computing, we can now improve our understanding of the emissions impact of our energy consumption and our clean-energy purchases,” observes van den Haak. “Until now, the industry has really been using a proxy for emissions, but with credit to Cambium data sets, we’ve been getting new insights over the past couple years.”

A Bloomberg New Energy Finance report naming Amazon as the world’s largest corporate purchaser of renewable energy globally since 2020, recently resulting in the retailer and logistics services company launching an Emissions First partnership with significant global renewable energy buyers including Meta, General Motors, Heineken, Intel, and Salesforce.

Emissions First members have pledged to support updates to the Greenhouse Gas Protocol—with several voluntarily procuring clean energy at volumes well above those stipulated by local states.

Van den Haak elaborates: “NREL’s Cambium data already provides a proven track record of insights and forward planning for organizations to assess impacts on grid decarbonization.

"We anticipate that this collaboration will gather the most accurate view of emissions impact possible, in turn allowing electricity users to make clear, high-impact emission reduction decisions in their businesses.”

In addition to procuring renewable energy credits, organizations will benefit from an updated reporting framework that reflects the most current research when making decisions that relate to energy efficiency, electric load shifting, and investment in technologies like electric vehicles.

“Understanding how corporate actions can influence emissions is a necessary part of the conversation around emissions reporting,” says Gagnon. “We look forward to contributing to the conversation, to help give the industry confidence that emission reduction claims made by organizations are accurate and impactful.”

This framework should give clean energy buyers more accurate data to maximize the emissions reduction impact of their investments.