Industry leaders from across the UK's built environment react in advance to provisions that have been trailed to feature in the Chancellor's Autumn Statement.
National Insurance on landlords
If the Chancellor begins charging National Insurance on rental income, which is currently exempt for landlords.
Anna Moore, co-founder and CEO of retrofit specialist Domna, says:
“Landlords are already grappling with the rising cost of meeting new energy efficiency and safety standards.
Adding National Insurance to rental income squeezes the very budgets they rely on to upgrade cold, inefficient homes.
The risk is that owners take properties off the market rather than invest in retrofit, which deepens the housing shortage and leaves even more households stuck in substandard homes.”
Cutting or scrapping VAT on retrofit upgrades
If the Chancellor cuts VAT on retrofit and energy efficiency work to stimulate activity in housing, construction and decarbonisation.
Anna Moore, co-founder and CEO of retrofit specialist Domna, says:
“Cutting VAT on energy efficiency upgrades is one of the smartest decisions the Chancellor makes.
The reality is that our flagship retrofit programmes are miles behind schedule.
Under the £1.8bn Social Housing Decarbonisation Fund, only 25,000 homes are improved out of the 94,000 originally targeted and barely 51,500 measures are installed compared with nearly 300,000 promised.
A VAT cut helps stretch every pound further and gets many more homes fixed, faster, both within flagship programmes and for private households looking to save on bills and stay warm.
“The barriers are simple - high costs are preventing more homes getting fixed.
External wall insulation is now 25 percent more expensive than originally assumed and heat pumps are 34 percent higher.
A lower VAT rate offsets those increases, unlocks stalled projects and allows landlords to go deeper on each home instead of scaling back work.
“Retrofit works.
Energy efficient homes reduce fuel poverty and ease long term pressure on public services.
If ministers want a quick, measurable win on bills, carbon and living standards, this is it.”
Scrapping home energy efficiency schemes
If the government cuts or raids key energy efficiency schemes, including the Energy Company Obligation and parts of the Warm Homes plan, to help pay for lower household energy bills.
Anna Moore, co-founder and CEO of retrofit specialist Domna, says:
“Cutting energy efficiency funding to shave a small amount off energy bills is the definition of short termism.
Every time the government freezes, pauses or scraps a programme like ECO or the Warm Homes plan, businesses halt projects, lay off staff and stop training.
That instability has already cost the economy £344 million pounds since 2017 - depriving at least 22,000 fuel-poor households of much-needed energy efficiency works.
We’ve dedicated billions to fuel poverty - and failed to deliver due to stop-start programmes and poor policy design.”
Increased budget for health and social care
If the Budget increases health and social care spending
Adrian D’Enrico, managing director at Social Housing REIT, a listed investor in Specialised Supported Housing, says:
“It is no surprise to see the NHS and social care emerge again as two of the toughest and most expensive Budget challenges faced by the Government.
Demand is rising, costs are escalating and too many vulnerable adults remain still stuck in hospitals or care homes because the right housing does not exist.
“But it’s not an impossible fix.
When people live in safe, adapted homes with the right support, they avoid unnecessary hospital stays and long-term care placements.
This not only delivers better resident outcomes, but it also offers material savings for the state.
If the government wants to help ease pressure on its health and social care budgets and services, it must recognise and prioritise supported housing as essential national infrastructure.”
‘Mansion taxes’ and other wealth-based property taxes
If the Budget increases taxes on properties above £2.5m
Nathan Gill, chief product officer of payment platform Redpin, which processes £10bn of international transactions per year, says:
“Our extensive data on where Brits are buying homes abroad shows high value transactions shifting towards more tax efficient jurisdictions such as Dubai.
The Budget has increased property taxation again, and the pace of outward migration among wealthier households will increase as a result.
Incentives matter, and our transaction data shows policy signals are already shaping where high value buyers choose to transact.”
Capital Gains Tax and inheritance tax
If the government raises Capital Gains Tax again and tightens inheritance tax reliefs to raise additional revenue without touching headline income tax rates.
Nathan Gill, chief product officer of payment platform Redpin, which processes £10bn of international transactions per year, says:
“When governments raise taxes on property and financial assets, wealthy households react early.
Our data already shows capital moving to the US, the UAE and southern Europe.
The Budget has tightened asset taxes again, and that trend will accelerate.”
Exit charges and general wealth taxation
If the Treasury introduces a new wealth tax and an exit tax on people leaving the UK with significant assets.
Nathan Gill, chief product officer of payment platform Redpin, which processes £10bn of international transactions per year, says:
“The moment the government started briefing the media on wealth and exit taxes, wealthy people began planning.
“High net worth households plan months in advance, and our cross border payments data is already showing people moving assets and exploring relocation earlier than they otherwise would.
“Britain sent a message that holding or transferring wealth will be more expensive, and individuals don't tend to wait for the fine print.
They move quickly and take their capital with them.”
